To effectively address global emissions, it's essential to recognize the complex interplay between economic development, rising energy demands, and the disparities in energy consumption across nations.
Building on the issues raised in our first article, which examined the shortcomings in the world's existing emissions reduction approach, it is critical to understand the relationship between economic development, energy consumption, and disparities in energy use across nations.
Reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is difficult due to the direct link between energy consumption and economic prosperity. As countries look to improve living standards, energy demand increases. Figure 1 clearly shows a correlation between energy use and GDP per capita. Worldwide, economic prosperity is tightly linked to substantial energy usage. No country has attained significant wealth without having high levels of energy consumption, highlighting the role that energy plays in driving economic development across the globe.
Source: M. Greenstone, “The Economics of the Global Energy Challenge”
This relationship poses a serious obstacle to lowering emissions. Energy is necessary, on the one hand, for economic expansion. It promotes infrastructure, drives industry, and raises living standards. On the other hand, a large portion of the developing world's energy still comes from coal, which is a major contributor to GHGs. As developing countries grow, their energy demands are expected to surge, potentially driving global emissions even higher. As shown in Figure 2, projections suggest that by 2100, cumulative GHG emissions from non-OECD nations, mostly developing nations, could be 3 times higher than those from OECD nations.
Source: M. Greenstone, “The Economics of the Global Energy Challenge”
The inequality in energy consumption between nations further complicates this picture. The differences are obvious. Figure 3 shows energy consumption per person in a developed country like Canada, versus consumption in less developed countries. While the average Canadian consumed about 100,000 kWh of energy in 2023, the average person in Bangladesh used less than 3,000 kWh. These differences directly translate to disparities in living standards and economic opportunities.
Source: Our World In Data, Energy-mix
Currently, 3.7 billion people—nearly half the world's population—consume less than 5,800 kWh of energy per capita annually, less than 6 percent of the average Canadian's consumption. As developing countries strive to improve living standards, their growth is expected to be about three times that of developed countries. By 2050, these countries (excluding China) are expected to account for 50 percent of the world’s energy needs.
Developing nations face the dual challenge of replacing coal plants with renewable energy and meeting growing energy demands with zero-emission power sources. The significant increase in energy growth as shown in Figure 4 comes from population growth and improvements in living standards enabled through greater energy consumption. This presents a dilemma. While few would argue against the right of these countries to grow and improve living standards for billions, the implications on global emissions and climate change are large.
Developed nations face a similar, though less pronounced, challenge. They too must replace existing coal- fuelled power with renewable sources while also investing in new green energy sources to manage growing demand. However, developed nations have more diversified energy sources, such as solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro. Their future energy needs are modest compared to developing nations, largely due to slower economic growth rates. Developed nations also have the financial and technical resources to make the necessary investments in cleaner power sources. Figure 4 shows a flat or slightly increasing forecast for energy demand among OECD countries, driven by minimal population growth and modest economic expansion, which is offset by improvements in energy efficiency.
Even with those advantages, headlines are being made about how countries such as the United States and Canada will be finding the clean energy required to power the forecasted growth in AI data centers. From The LA Times “Generative AI is an energy hog and that could hurt progress fighting climate change,” the headline from Reuters, “Power mad: AI’s massive energy demand risks causing major environmental headaches,” or from The New York Times, “A.I. Frenzy Complicates Efforts to Keep Power-Hungry Data Sites Green.” One can almost sense the “gnashing of the teeth” over this issue.
An example closer to home is the struggle to electrify natural gas liquefaction in British Columbia, which serves as a reminder of how difficult decarbonization can be, even for industrialized countries with sophisticated resources. While BC tries to secure enough clean energy for this shift, the challenges developing nations face in balancing decarbonization with improving living standards are far more significant.
Global climate targets will depend significantly on developing nations. Stronger collaboration between developed and developing economies, based on an understanding of their specific challenges, is essential for building effective climate strategies.
Jerome Gessaroli is a senior fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute. He writes on economic and environmental matters, from a market-based principles perspective. To read the previous article of his five-part series for Resource Works, click here.