And red lights in BC and Washington State.
Around the world, there is much talk and optimism about hydrogen as a fuel of the future, but green traffic lights are comparatively modest in number.
A global reality check by BloombergNEF finds that some 1,600 projects have been announced to date, but it estimates that only 477 will be built — and often later than planned.
In Canada, more than 80 hydrogen-production projects have been “announced.” Several are proposed for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and other provinces, but actual progress on them is slow.
BC is still wincing from the shelving by Australian energy giant Fortescue Ltd. of plans for a $2-billion hydrogen generating plant in Prince George. So is the Lheidli T’enneh Nation, whose territory was to host the Project Coyote facility.
The cause: uncertainty over whether Fortescue would be able to access enough electrical power — 1,000 megawatts from BC Hydro — to produce hydrogen by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen.
That would be equivalent to 90% of the 1,100-MW generating capacity of the $16-billion Site C dam, due to come online next year.
At the same time, Fortescue also gave a red light to its plans for a hydrogen plant near Centralia in southwest Washington State.
However, after Fortescue back-burnered those BC and Washington projects, word came from the government of Brazil that it had approved a $3.6-billion hydrogen project for Fortescue in Ceará state, in northeast Brazil.
The moves are an example of the constant ups and downs of hydrogen planning around the world.
Back to BloombergNEF’s global reality check:
Governments are likely to miss their hydrogen (H2) goals for 2030 by almost two-thirds due to longer project completion timelines and insufficient policy support.
The US is expected to become the single largest producer of clean hydrogen by 2030, accounting for almost 37% of global supply. “The US hosts the most mature project pipeline globally, dominated by big blue H2 projects likely to benefit from tax credits.”
(‘Blue’ hydrogen is derived from natural gas, with the resulting carbon dioxide captured and stored. ‘Green’ hydrogen is hydrogen produced by splitting water via electrolysis, which is what Fortescue planned for Prince George. These are just two of the many “colors” of hydrogen.)
In May this year, Natural Resources Canada proclaimed: “Across Canada, interest in low-carbon hydrogen is booming. Approximately 80 low-carbon hydrogen production projects have been announced, representing an expression of interest of over $100 billion in potential investment dedicated to building out this clean energy opportunity.
“Pilot projects are underway, showcasing Canadian ingenuity and demonstrating how hydrogen can help fuel our trucks, buses, and trains, help decarbonize our industries, and help heat our homes and businesses.”
Long before that, when Germany came to Canada in 2022 to seek shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared that there has “never been a strong business case” for LNG exports from Canada’s East Coast to Europe. Instead, he spoke of exporting Canadian hydrogen, as early as 2025.
In the 27 months since then, he has not produced or made public a “business case” for hydrogen exports. His 2025 date now looks unlikely, but in July this year he and Germany pledged some $600 million to support hydrogen trade between the two countries. Canada has also discussed hydrogen sales to the Netherlands.
The federal government’s hydrogen strategy of 2020 spoke of Canada having up to 30 percent of its energy in the form of hydrogen and becoming one of the top three clean-hydrogen producers globally.
But as Reuters news service reported in August: “Since the original strategy was announced four years ago, developers and producers alike have struggled with a slow roll-out of government subsidies, few final investment decisions (FIDs), insufficient infrastructure, and uneven definitions of what constitutes clean hydrogen. The slow start is not unique to Canada.”
Adds Ivette Vera-Perez, president and CEO of the Canadian Hydrogen Association: “You cannot say that it's only late in Canada. It’s everywhere.
“There has been a lot of enthusiasm and optimism in the sector as a whole, and occasionally there are those who think we will be developed much quicker. We must be realistic. We need to recognize that we are building a new industry, and that takes time.”
That applies to BC, too, where the provincial government says some 50 hydrogen projects are proposed, including hydrogen-fueling stations and heavy-duty trucking uses.
So around the world, the current color of hydrogen is slow…