Navigating new political currents: How the U.S. election could impact Canadian energy

For policy wonks like those I’m gathered with in Whistler this week, could there be a better gift than the conundrums unleashed over the past week onto the U.S. political landscape?

The rise of Donald Trump and the potential presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris conjure up a staggering range of possibilities. When it comes to trade, international relations, and the future of the foundational natural resource sectors that unify the ten sub-national jurisdictions making up PNWER, this is what everyone is going to be talking about..

With Trump securing the Republican nomination last week, Canadian energy producers were left pondering what his potential return to the White House might mean for their industry. Like a wildcatter drilling an exploratory well, Trump's energy policies promise both gushers of opportunity and dry holes of risk for our oil and gas sector.

On the upside, his pledge to unleash American energy production could boost overall demand and prices, indirectly benefiting Canadian exporters. His promised regulatory reforms may also grease the wheels for new pipelines and LNG terminals, easing the flow of our energy products southward. It's enough to make an Albertan oilman shed a tear of joy into his Stampede pancakes.

But before we break out the champagne (or perhaps a nice Canadian ice wine), consider the potential downsides. Trump's "America First" trade policies and tariff threats loom like storm clouds on the horizon for Canadian exporters. His vow to gut environmental regulations faster than you can say "EPA" could leave Canadian producers at a competitive disadvantage, burdened by our quaint commitment to responsible production practices.

Yet in this potential regulatory race to the bottom, I spy an opportunity as golden as the fields of Saskatchewan canola. By doubling down on our world-class environmental and safety standards, Canadian energy could position itself as the responsible choice in global markets.

Of course, there's a risk in tooting our own sustainability horn too loudly. Trump isn't known for his fondness of perceived criticism, and antagonizing him could lead to retaliatory tariffs faster than you can say "covfefe." We'll need to navigate this terrain as carefully as a pipeline through the Rockies.

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris, Biden's preferred successor, retakes the White House, the landscape will look markedly different. Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration's focus on climate action and clean energy. This could mean stronger support for renewables, potentially benefiting Canadian sectors involved in green technology and clean energy exports. However, stricter environmental regulations and a push for rapid decarbonization might challenge traditional oil and gas industries.

A Harris administration might prioritize cross-border collaboration on climate initiatives, providing opportunities for joint projects in carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen development, and renewable energy. This could foster closer ties and create a more integrated North American energy market focused on sustainability.

Bloomberg reports that while Harris wouldn’t be likely to make major shifts to the direction Biden charted on climate change, her opposition to offshore drilling and fracking suggests her signature move as president could be bringing fierce oil industry antagonism to the White House. As California attorney general, she brought lawsuits against energy companies, prosecuted a pipeline company over an oil leak and investigated Exxon Mobil Corp. for misleading the public about climate change. 

Yet, such a focus on environmental standards could also mean increased scrutiny and regulatory hurdles for Canadian energy projects seeking to enter the U.S. market. Canadian producers will need to balance compliance with high environmental standards while remaining competitive.

In either scenario, navigating the U.S. political landscape will require strategic adaptability from Canadian energy producers. Trump's potential return could mean deregulation and a push for fossil fuel dominance, while a Harris presidency could emphasize clean energy and environmental collaboration.

And for anyone lamenting the potential Trump threat to renewables growth, remember the number one test for The Donald: "Can I make money off it?" From Texas to Alberta, solar is a huge growth opportunity in the "and more" rather than the "and/or" category of energy opportunities that are creating investor profits. There's no reason for him to fire opportunities like those.

Speaking of careful navigation, let's ponder the electric vehicle conundrum. If Trump follows through on scrapping EV mandates, Canada may find itself stuck between a Chevy Bolt and a hard place. Do we follow suit and risk our climate goals, or forge ahead solo and risk becoming an automotive island? It's enough to make one long for the simpler days of the horse and buggy.

But fear not, dear reader. For in the potential pairing of a Trump presidency and a Pierre Poilievre prime ministership, I see a silver lining as shiny as a freshly polished oil rig. Their aligned views on energy could usher in a new era of continental cooperation, turning the 49th parallel into a veritable pipeline of mutual prosperity. If current trends of market-driven decarbonization continue, this would actually be positive for the climate (and yes, I can already hear the chorus of those saying such a thing is impossible).

In the end, navigating the Trump energy landscape will require all the nimbleness of a Fort McMurray worker on an icy road. But with a dash of ingenuity, a sprinkle of diplomacy, and perhaps a generous helping of maple syrup to sweeten the deal, Canadian energy producers may yet find themselves not just surviving, but thriving in the turbulent waters of a potential Trump 2.0 era.