Global emissions are rising despite our efforts. Why aren't current strategies working?
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has become an urgent global priority, but current measures are not keeping pace with the scale of the problem. The United Nations has ambitious targets: a 45 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, and net-zero emissions by 2050. Canada has a target to reduce GHG emissions by 40 – 45 percent less than its 2005 level by 2030 and to also have net zero emissions by 2050. The global targets look to limit global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, above which climate scientists warn of severe consequences.
However, globally the reality is bleak. Based on current national commitments to reduce GHGs, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global GHG emissions are forecast to rise by 9 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. This trajectory is not just missing the mark, it is heading in the opposite direction. As shown in Figure 1, Canada is also on track to significantly fall short of its 2030 targets. Based on current policies in place, Canada is expected to emit 560 Mt of GHGs by 2030, far more than its 403 – 409 Mt goal.
Source: ECCC, Greenhouse gas emissions projections.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), weather events will become more severe and frequent, sea levels will rise and threaten coastal communities, and ecosystems and biodiversity will face disruption. These effects will be global, affecting small and large nations alike.
The current system, where countries set and attempt to meet their own emission reduction goals, is proving ineffective. This approach makes global cooperation difficult, as climate goals cannot be met through domestic efforts alone. It does not matter where GHG emissions originate, their impact is felt globally. A molecule of carbon dioxide emitted in Chicago has the same effect as one emitted in New Delhi.
Additionally, the present system offers limited incentives for nations to collaborate. Countries focus on domestic actions to meet their NDCs, even when more cost-effective opportunities for emissions reduction might exist elsewhere. This results in wasted resources and lost opportunities to make a greater global impact. Instead of pooling resources and expertise to achieve the most significant global reductions, nations often prioritize their own targets, even if this approach results in lower overall effectiveness. The emphasis on national over global results contributes to this misalignment and exacerbates the difficulty and cost of addressing the climate crisis.
The debates over which countries should do more or less to reduce their emissions, while politically important, are secondary to the physical reality of climate change. The overall level of global GHG emissions, rather than the emissions of any single nation, will determine how extreme the consequences of climate change will be.
Countries must increase their international efforts to tackle this global challenge, with policies that prioritize collaboration alongside national commitments. Understanding how interconnected our climate system is and acknowledging our shared responsibility will allow us to move past the limitations of current strategies and toward more effective climate solutions.
This is the first in a series of five articles that examines the complex relationship between energy use and economic development, and how disparities in energy consumption between developed and developing countries make meeting international climate goals so challenging. Going forward, we will discuss how to improve climate change policy by moving beyond the sole focus on domestic initiatives toward more effective, collaborative international approaches.
Jerome Gessaroli is a senior fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute. He writes on economic and environmental matters, from a market-based principles perspective.